through a process of contraction, after a cycle of years of over-production. Loss of employment, reductions of wages on the Continent, the pressure of compulsory military service, have provoked an uneasy feeling amongst the working classes, which in one country takes the form of Communism, in another of Socialism, in Russia of Nihilism. In our own country, envy is excited by the unequal distribution of wealth, and by the self-indulgence and luxury of the spoiled favourites of fortune. Here, too, there is ample scope for the invention of schemes for remodelling society. It is by 'detective discussion' that fallacies will be exposed and the truth established.

tions in ex

The general depression of trade is the first subject Fluctuawith which I propose to deal. The Board of Trade port trade. tables have shown to all who take an interest in this subject the fluctuations which have taken place in our exports and imports. The falling away is not observable in every trade, and the depression has of late been far more marked in our home consumption than in our foreign trade.

The following figures exhibit the total declared value of British and Irish produce exported from the United Kingdom.

The imports for 1878 amounted to 363,710,000l., a decrease of 28,860,000l. on the total value of 1877. The exports fell, from 198,790,000l. in 1877, to 192,814,1117. in 1878, a decrease of 5,986,000Z.

The de

cline one

The change in the course of business exhibits a of values. decline of values, rather than of quantity. This

opinion was confirmed by Lord Beaconsfield in his recent speech in the House of Lords, when he stated that no diminution had taken place in the volume of production. There had been less profit, but the same quantity of goods had been manufactured, and there were no markets from which we had been excluded by foreign competition. Referring to the figures given above, the Prime Minister stated that the exports had fallen from 255,000,000l. in 1873 to 198,000,000l. in 1877; but, if the products of 1877 had been valued at the same rate as the products of 1873, the difference between the total amounts would have been reduced to less than a million.

6

Comparing the exports of 1878 with those of 1872-a year, be it observed, of inflation and reckless speculation-the Economist' attributes one-fourth of the loss to a decline in demand, and three-fourths to reductions in price.

In Cleveland, the largest iron-producing centre in the United Kingdom, we find that the total production for the year 1878 was about 2,023,000 tons, or scarcely 102,000 tons less than in 1877. Taking into view the adverse conditions with which the ironmasters have been contending, such a result exhibits a marvellous proof of the energy and industrial capacity of the ironmasters and the workmen of Cleveland in competition with the whole world. The improvements in the quality are not less remarkable than the sustained quantity of the product.

are Exports of The produce in

The most important items in our export trade the cotton, woollen, iron, and steel manufactures. 'Economist' supplies the following table of the principal exports of these articles in 1878.

Table of Principal Articles exported from the United Kingdom in 1878. Quantity and Value, and Excess or Deficiency of same compared with 1877.

(In Millions to two Decimals.)

British

1878.

iron and

goods in

In a recent report to the Board of Trade, Mr. Prices of Giffen has given a summary of the changes of price cotton in the cotton and iron trades between 1861 and 1877. The price of cotton yarn was 12:54d. per lb. in 1861, 28-80d. in 1864, 20-04d. in 1869, and 12.85d, in 1877.

Commercial features of the past

year.

The price of piece goods was 3.02d. per yard in 1861, 5.79d. in 1864, 3.79d. in 1869, and 2.83d. in 1877. The price of cotton goods, on the average of the whole trade, has been at one time 100 per cent. higher than in 1861 or 1877, two years of very great depression at the commencement and the close of the period included in Mr. Giffen's analysis. Cotton goods form a third of our exports. Hence a variation of 100 per cent. in values would, other things being equal, amount to a variation of over 30 per cent. in the total trade.

Articles of iron constitute about 10 per cent. of our exportations, and Mr. Giffen records equally remarkable oscillations of price in this important branch of trade. Pig-iron has ranged from 51.778. per ton in 1861 to 124.65s. in 1873, while bar, angle, bolt, and rod iron has ranged between 7-297. and 13.091. per Here again we have a variation of 100 per cent.,

ton.

or 10 per cent. in our whole trade.

The average prices of our exports of all classes were lower in 1877 than at any period since 1861, and below the level of 1861 in the proportion of 71.06 to 73.1. In 1878, a further fall of price has taken place.

The Statist,' in reviewing the general movement of British trade for the year 1878, remarks that ‘the distress was confined to a few of the great industries, while elsewhere there was "stationariness," rather than depression. The sweeping away of bankrupt houses, the winding-up of fictitious credit, and an adjustment of the cost of production to present prices, constitute the salient features in the trade of the past year.' We have no evidence of loss of capital. The loss, on the

other hand, was serious in the inflation period, when loans were recklessly made to bankrupt states, and money was invested in joint-stock companies as unsoundly constituted as they were unskilfully managed.

The comparatively small increase in pauperism is a proof that, while their earnings may have been contracted, the masses of the population can still secure a livelihood. The continued growth of capital is established by the activity with which building operations have been prosecuted in the large towns, and by the extensive reclamations of land in the rural districts.

foreign

The Economist' considers that British trade com- British compared pares favourably with that of our foreign competitors. with The last four years have seen scarcely any accumu- trade. lation of income from profits, either in Europe or in America. In North America, and in a less degree in Central Europe, the previous reserves had been largely diminished. In this country, it is probable that no single year since 1873 has closed with positive loss; but the surpluses have been small and very irregularly distributed.

1879.

The Board of Trade Returns for the present year Trade of exhibit a falling off in the value of the exports, and a small expansion only as regards quantities. We see, in the returns for March, that the shipments of cotton piece-goods were 4 per cent. larger than in the corresponding month last year. In previous years we have observed with regret an increased exportation of cotton yarns, and a simultaneous diminution in the exportation of piece-goods. The most recent returns show a decided falling-off in the expor