*

surplus produce of labour must be conveyed to its market or locality of consumption. Common roads will soon be superseded, except for very short distances, by railways as the means of such conveyance, and there can be no doubt that a well-digested system of tabulating the traffic of so large a portion of the produce of the land and labour as must pass through the hands of railway companies, would furnish the most important information on the state and variation of local trade throughout the kingdom. The members of this Society need not to be reminded of the value of such information in the hands of the legislator and the skilful statist; nor is it to be apprehended, on the other hand, that they will attach to it more than its due value. Many circumstances will make it necessary to correct and modify the information thus obtained by facts derived from other sources; and the greater the number of those sources we have opportunities of consulting, the more nearly we shall approximate, by comparing them with the railway tables, to a clear view of the condition of any particular locality. Amongst the sources here alluded to, one of the most obviously desirable is an account of the traffic on canals, and although the obstacles in the way of obtaining it are confessedly great, it is to be hoped that, in proportion as the important influence of statistical inquiry on the well-being of the community becomes appreciated, an account may be obtained of so much of the canal traffic, pertaining to the transport of large quantities of goods of one kind, as would furnish materials for tabulation on a system similar to that which is here recommended for the official returns of railways. Notwithstanding, however, that a comparison of railway and canal traffic may be most important in reference to the whole trade of a particular place, they will probably, at a future time, become, in some measure, independent of each other in reference to certain articles of commerce of which large quantities are conveyed, and which could be tabulated in some such form as that shown in the accompanying tables. Live stock, for instance, forms no part of canal traffic, and it is probable that the transport of woven manufactures, the value of which bears a large proportion to their weight, may ultimately be entirely transferred from the canals to the railways, the latter mode of conveyance complying with the desirable and often necessary condition of speedy delivery. The canals, on the other hand, will retain a large portion of the traffic in weighty and cumbrous goods, of which the value bears so small a proportion to their weight and bulk, that conveyance by railway would materially affect their price. The trader will also find his account in saving the difference of rates by transmitting through the canal companies many other articles of which the speedy delivery is not a material desideratum. Tables compiled from the shipping and landing entries of docks and harbours would also, when compared with the railway tables, throw light on the trade of the seaport towns, and that of the places with which they are connected by railway.

Meanwhile, the absence of tabulated matter derived from such sources has not discouraged me from suggesting the commencement of a system by the conversion of the materials more conveniently within our reach. It is true that, for some purposes, the value of the tables will be but small, so long as they are uncorroborated by other evidence; but even

The term "surplus" must here be taken as the excess of produce beyond its consumption in or very near the locality of production,

though we were unable to deduce any satisfactory result from the actual numbers exhibited by the tables, their variations would indicate, in a very striking manner, the operation of causes, the nature of which we should, by these indications, be led more particularly to investigate. At the same time, our knowledge of the present imperfect state of the returns would put us on our guard against drawing hasty conclusions. Notwithstanding, however, the imperfect state of the materials, it is hoped that a cursory examination of the tables compiled from them will be sufficient to show that they may be made available for the purposes suggested. It is also anticipated that an examination of these tables may be serviceable in assisting to form an estimate, by analogy of circumstances, of the probable traffic of a projected line, and of its effect upon the places on or near its course. It is presumed that a convenient form of reference to the experience of the past will become every day of greater value for modifying the rules hitherto adopted in making estimates for new lines, and that as the railway system becomes extended over the whole country, the tables will exhibit very decidedly, when carried over a series of years, the fluctuations caused by the stimulus given to local trade, and by the counteraction of new competing lines.*

The plan here recommended, and which it is attempted to illustrate by the accompanying tables, is such an analysis of the returns as will furnish, in addition to the table of receipts and the passenger table, materials for the construction of a separate table for any article of consumption conveyed in large quantities. I have been enabled to extract materials for the tables here described, and I have in many instances supplied their deficiencies by calculating the results in a manner which will be explained in the description.

No. 1 is a table of the gross receipts of 66 railways. Of this number 49 are on four half-yearly returns ending 30th June, 1843; 5 are on three returns; and the remaining 12 on two returns. The table contains seven columns, viz., No. 1, the name of the railway; No. 2, the numbers of the returns; Nos. 3 and 4, the per centage proportions of passenger traffic and goods traffic; Nos. 5 and 6, the gross receipts of passenger and goods traffic; and No. 7, the total gross receipts. The value of the columns of proportions, independently of their fitness to convey a ready and correct idea of the commercial character of a railway, consists in their indication of considerable changes. Wherever such changes in the proportions meet the eye, the columns of actual receipts may be consulted for information as to whether the change of proportions is due to an increase or decrease of passenger or goods traffic, to an increase of the one and a decrease of the other, or to an increase or decrease of both in different proportions. Wherever the proportions appear to be stationary, the column of totals will show the increase or decrease, if any, of the whole. These returns are, in fact, the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth returns made to the Board of Trade under the powers conferred by Lord Seymour's Act, but the first two (1st July to 31st December, 1840, and 1st January to 30th June, 1841) are so imperfect, that I find them quite unmanageable for the purpose of tabulation. The figures 1, 2, 3, 4, in column No. 2, indicate the first, second, third, and fourth returns, and as their use is to avoid a repetition of dates, the blank spaces opposite to the corresponding number of the return point out those lines of which the

* A new line may compete with an old one for part of the traffic of their common terminus, by opening new markets for its produce, although in an opposite direction,

returns commence only at the second or third half-year, dating from the 1st July, 1841, as a commencement for the tables. In a few instances of defective returns, the sums of the fifth and sixth columns have not been carried out to the column of totals. The receipts for horses and carriages and passengers' luggage have been included in the receipts for passengers, as it is considered that they make one of the expectations of a passenger traffic, and are generally proportional to the quantity of firstclass passenger traffic. Table No. 2 is intended to show the number of passengers of each class conveyed on railways, the average distance, and the rate of fare per mile, the figures indicating the dates of the returns being applied in the same manner throughout all the tables as in No. 1. Table No. 3 is of the same form as No. 2, showing the numbers, average distances, and rates of charge per mile for horses and carriages, and in -like manner, Tables Nos. 4, 5, 6, and 7, show the results in the transport of coals, cattle, sheep, and pigs. The passenger table includes 60 railways. In this table, as well as in the succeeding numbers, the average distances have been calculated from the mileage and the numbers conveyed. In some instances, however, the mileage is not supplied in the returns, but in those cases where the rates and separate receipts are given, they have been taken as the elements of the calculation; the distances so calculated are noted in the tables, but as the rates are in many cases given to several places of decimals, it was considered that the results would sufficiently approximate to the truth for the purposes of the table.

In two or three cases only, where the numbers carried on a railway made it too important to be excluded from the tables, a rate has been assumed for calculating the distances, the rates and mileage not being furnished in the returns. Those distances are accordingly noted in the tables to be taken as approximations, answering the purpose of indices of variation.

An examination of the average distances of the passenger table shows that, in general, the distances of first class passengers are longer than those of the second, and the second longer than those of the third. The most remarkable exception to this rule appears in the distances travelled by third-class passengers on the Grand Junction. During the two halves of the year ending 30th June, 1843, while the first class travelled 59 41 and 59-58 miles, and the second class 37.79 and 36.35, the distances travelled by the third class were 73 55 and 76 68 miles, or nearly the whole length of the line. The line is virtually 97.5 miles in length, although it terminates at the junction with the Liverpool and Manchester line at Newton. The same kind of exception appears on the South-Western, the first class varying, over two years, from 38 21 to 4235, the second from 26.08 to 29 07, while the third class ranges from 55 18 to 59.24. On the Great Western the third class distances are very nearly equal to the first class, and would probably exceed them on the main line between London and Bristol. The returns, however, include the traffic of the Cheltenham and Great Western Union, and of the Bristol and Exeter lines. These exceptions to the general law indicate the existence of a regular current of third class traffic between London and the ports of Liverpool, Bristol, Southampton, and Portsmouth, the greater portion of which probably consists of seamen, soldiers, and labourers. This hypothesis appears to be corroborated by the long distances of third-class passengers on the London and Birmingham line. The Board of Trade Report, February 5th, 1842, contains a

table in which the average distance travelled by third-class passengers on this line (as calculated from the return ending 1st July, 1841), is 55 miles. In my tables it ranges from 60 73 to 64 31. With the exception of this and the North Midland, which falls off from 16 miles to 12 or 13, the average distances given for third class on 11 railways do not vary considerably from those of my tables.

The line on which the greatest number of passengers were carried during the period of the four returns was the Great Western. The London and Birmingham, however, surpassed it in the mileage of the first and third classes, and was not far inferior to it in that of the second.

The following is a statement of the per centage variation in the numbers of passengers of each class, and in the money receipts of the Great Western and London and Birmingham lines for the second year as compared with the first year of the tables :

The increase in the number of third-class passengers on the SouthWestern line during the second year of the tables, as compared with the first, is 49 per cent.

Another remarkable feature exhibited by the table is the large quantity of third class short traffic on the Sheffield and Manchester, and the Manchester and Birmingham, and still greater numbers are shown on the Manchester and Leeds, being, from 747,000 persons during the first year, to 794,000 during the second year, carried about 11 miles; the second class of this line also shows about one third of this number carried double the distance. These examples are strong indications of the commercial activity of the population in the neighbourhood of the manufacturing towns. The columns of rates in these tables will probably serve no other purpose for the present than to convey a general idea of the cost of travelling and conveying goods in different parts of the country, but it is also intended that they should be consulted, after a period of some years, in connection with the variations in the numbers and quantities conveyed, in estimating the extent to which these latter may have been affected by the variations in the former. The distances shown in the tables of horses and carriages are remarkable for their regularity, the former being, in most cases, somewhat shorter than the latter, and the ratio of each to the whole length of the several lines being greater than that of any other species of traffic. The distance for horses was, during the two years, upwards of 80 miles on the London and Birmingham, and 62 to 64 miles on the Great Western, the former line carrying the greater number: the Great Western, however, carried a greater number of carriages.

The returns of the Pontop and South Shields Railway commence at

No. 3, and show a greater mileage in the conveyance of coals than any other railway. The number of tons carried during the period from 5th July, 1842, to 2nd July, 1843, was 602,251, an average distance of nearly 15 miles, which is equal to nearly 9,000,000 tons carried one mile. The Durham and Sunderland Railway carried, during the first year of the returns, 387,705 tons, and during the second year, 331,282 tons a distance of 12 miles. On the Newcastle and Carlisle line, 157,591 tons were carried during the first year an average distance of 12.85 miles, and during the second year, 139,336 tons were carried an average distance of 16 68 miles; the falling off in the quantity was more than compensated by the greater average distance of the second year, the total mileage of the second year exceeding that of the first by 16 per cent. The quantity here given for each year is the sum of five different quantities carried different average distances, and in addition to these, the company carried 39,856 chaldrons the first year, and 33,879 chaldrons the second year a distance of about 61⁄2 miles, and from 60,000 to 63,000 chaldrons the short distance of 155 yards. The returns of the Newcastle and Carlisle Railway are admirable specimens of careful analysis, and do great credit to the officers of that Company. On the St. Helen's and Runcorn Gap Railway 158,510 tons were carried the first year, and 191,824 tons during the second, a distance of 8 miles; and 20,954 tons, and 29,836 tons were carried a distance of 23 miles during the first and second years respectively. The Great North of England shows a traffic of from 84,000 to 85,000 tons per annum carried about 26 miles, and amongst the shorter distances, the Manchester, Bolton, and Bury Railway shows a traffic of about 50,000 tons, and the Maryport and Carlisle, from 60,000 to 70,000 tons per annum, the average distance on each line being about 6 miles. The coals on the latter line are principally for shipment at Maryport.

The London and Birmingham is the chief line for the conveyance of cattle, upwards of 20,000 having been carried an average distance of nearly 70 miles during the second year of the returns. Considerable

numbers are also carried on the Midland Counties, a great feeder of the London and Birmingham. During the first year of the returns, the numbers carried on both these lines were very nearly the same; but during the second year, while the numbers on the London and Birmingham increased considerably, those on the Midland Counties fell off to less than one-half. Cattle are also carried in considerable numbers on the Great North of England, Great Western, and Grand Junction. It is to be regretted that the returns of the North Midland are so imperfect in the account of live stock, that they could not be used for the tables. The number of sheep carried on the Great Western during the first year of the returns was 75,970, and during the second 118,641, over an average distance of about 46 miles. On the London and Birmingham, 91,447 were carried during the first year, and 109,889 during the second year, an average distance of about 60 miles; but the average distance of the numbers carried during the half-year corresponding to the first return, appears to have been upwards of 90 miles, or of the whole length of the line. The numbers conveyed on the York and North Midland during the period of the two returns, from 1st July, 1842, to 30th June, 1843, were 104.403, a distance of about 16 miles. This number is much greater than that shown by any railway joining it. The Manchester and Leeds shows about 50,000 the first year, and 30,000 the