he has consigned the Japanese quarrel, in spite of the attempt to revive it over the question of Magdalena Bay and the acquisition of a Japanese naval base in Lower California in the guise of a fishing-station, he deserves the greatest credit for keeping the United States from intervention in Mexico and Cuba. In both cases there would have been plenty of excuse on account of the danger to American citizens and property; in both cases a long and difficult war would have ensued. But Mr Taft was proof against the temptation to win the spurious political popularity of a war-president; and it was not his fault that he, the head of a great state, was forced to send an important and delicate personal message to President Gomez of Cuba from a petty town in New Jersey, while he was being dragged all over the country and held up to public execration as a liar and a traitor to the public interests. It was his own old friend who thus characterised him, and at the same time exposed his country to the indignity of carrying on its diplomacy from the rear of an electioneering train.

In these matters Mr Taft has shown firmness, moderation and insight; in the matter of the Panama Canal tolls, which arose unexpectedly at the close of the last session, he has evinced in the international field that excessive legalism of mind and that tendency to narrowness of view which have brought down on him the wrath of the Progressives in domestic affairs. The opinion has been expressed in England that the attitude of Congress and the President has been assumed with a keen eye to the coming elections; this does not seem to be correct, and the situation can be explained, though not excused, by much more permanent factors in American life.

The question of the canal came up naturally through the necessity of providing for its administration now that its completion is in sight. Mr Taft openly recorded, months ago, his conviction that free passage to American vessels was within the treaty rights of America; and his suggestion was taken up by the same men who have pressed in season and out of season for ship subsidies. Their action with regard to the canal tolls was simply a demand for such assistance in an indirect form; and, though approved by the Republican Senate, the Democratic House would have none of it. It was urged that, Vol. 217.-No. 433.

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taken in connexion with the extension of the American registry to foreign-built ships owned by Americans, it would seriously deplete the canal revenues; and the Democrats, on the eve (as they hope) of coming into power, had no intention of saddling the general taxation of the country with the expenses of the great waterway.

Though the provision of the Canal Bill, that ships belonging to American railroad companies should not use the canal, deals a heavy blow at the Canadian Pacific Railway Company with its important fleets, it was not inspired by hostility to that corporation. The clause was inserted in the Bill at the wish of those opponents of the railroads who had no wish to see frustrated their hopes of real competition between the canal and the transcontinental lines; and the fact that any Canadian road is subject to the Interstate Commerce Commission, and so to the prohibition contained in the Bill, was overlooked as immaterial to the main issue.

The suggestion of President Taft that permission be granted to any foreigner who feels himself aggrieved to appeal to an American domestic court, was treated by Congress with the contempt it deserved. It neither met the real issue nor satisfied foreign objectors. If the HayPauncefote Treaty authorises Congress to remit the tolls on American ships, aliens should have no right to appeal to a domestic court; if it does not, redress should be sought by foreign nations at The Hague. Yet President Taft, the man who a few months before had been trying to induce the Senate to accept a universal arbitration treaty with Great Britain, stultified himself by advocating an absurdly inadequate substitute for an appeal to an international tribunal. Congress declined to support Mr Taft; and his proposal was riddled with criticism by the responsible Press of the country. His policy was stamped as futile and illogical, and as another example of that tendency to avoid grappling with a serious problem, which had cost him the confidence of a large part of the Republican party.

Yet, with all his deficiencies, Mr Taft would have been in a far stronger position to-day if he had not been exposed to the hostility of Mr Roosevelt. It is his misfortune more than his fault that his old familiar friend has been false to him, and has driven him into humiliating

controversies on subjects which the decencies of public life should have preserved as secrets. Fortunately, there is no need here to review the remarkable campaign of the ex-President, for party feeling is running so high that opinions are hopelessly divided on even such vital points as the validity of Mr Taft's re-nomination and the supposed reluctance of Mr Roosevelt to come forward as a candidate. A few salient facts, however, cannot be challenged. It is Mr Roosevelt who has first succeeded in compelling a President of the United States to desert the business of the nation and pursue him from State to State in order to reply to a torrent of invective. It is Mr Roosevelt who is seeking to break the convention against the granting to any man a third term in the White House, and is explaining away an absolutely definite pledge by an argument that would be laughable if it were not so pitiful. It is Mr Roosevelt who has appealed to forces that he may not be able to curb, and has raised questions affecting the fundamental institutions of the country which there is nothing in his record to show that he possesses sufficient economic knowledge to solve.

Fortunately for the country, it is not with Mr Roosevelt but with Governor Wilson that its direction for the next four years is likely to lie. Written, as this article must be, two months before the election, there is time for much to happen to upset its forecast; but, if anything can be called certain in politics, it is the success of the Democratic candidate. Mr Taft, with the aid of the 'interests' and the great strength of American party ties, may make a respectable showing, and Mr Roosevelt will by his wonderful popularity and exuberant vitality poll a goodly number of votes ; but the Progressive party is likely to draw far more heavily on the Republican than the Democratic ranks, and Mr Roosevelt will find it difficult to convince a Democrat why in a Democratic year he should not vote with his party. The first contests have been on the whole favourable to the Democrats. The States of Vermont and Maine elected their Governors last month; and an analysis of their votes in the light of their political history has made it plain that the strength of the Progressive party is considerable, but that it is not likely in November to do more than capture a few offices and make the defeat of the regular Republicans more

certain and more bitter. Thus everything seems favourable to Governor Wilson; and his record proves that he will take advantage of every chance. Both as President of Princeton University and as Governor of New Jersey he has proved himself a fighting man; and to his recognised ability as a thinker and administrator he has lately added a facility not to be despised in an orator and a politician.

Whatever may be the result when the polls are closed at five o'clock in the afternoon of November 5, the campaign now drawing to its end will leave indelible marks on the American people. Never before have the 'bosses' been made the target at a general election; and never before has there been such a truly national effort to purify the political system. Never before, moreover, have the ' interests' attracted so much attention in Congress and among politicians everywhere; never has there been so direct an attack on those who wield the power of money without accepting its responsibility. Long ago it was recognised that one of the chief services of Mr Roosevelt to the nation was his insistence on the Ten Commandments and common honesty ; and, whatever may now be thought of his motives or his methods in the present contest, he has by his marvellous energy and picturesque personality once again set the people thinking. Even though Congress can do little to relieve the growing stringency of life in the United States, notice has been served on those who control the capital of the country that it would be well for them to do nothing to add still more to the wrath of the people. Semi-socialistic as are many of the aims of the Progressive party, they have raised issues that cannot be neglected permanently, and have shown above all that the voters will no longer submit to the invisible domination of capital in political affairs. It will be well for the Republic if Governor Wilson's observation proves correct, and if the financiers and manufacturers themselves realise that they cannot live to themselves alone, and that they can have no real prosperity if the community of which they are but a part is not prospering also.

Art. 13.—THE ULSTER COVENANT.

ULSTER Day has come and gone, and the Ulster Covenant has been signed by a very large number of men. If it is a number which falls short of some estimates made by journalists strangely ignorant of the number of persons in Ulster who could by any possibility have signed, it is at all events a sufficient body of support, especially when we have regard to its representative character and to the positions occupied and the means commanded by many of the signatories. Fifty thousand resolute men, backed by the resources of a great industrial community, and dwelling, not amidst a hostile population, but within a circumscribed area which they can control, are sufficient to defy any forces of coercion which are likely to be brought against them. Resolute' men, we have saidit all depends upon that; but there is no reason to doubt their resolution. Ulstermen have a great history behind them; the evidences of their courage and determination are written large in the annals of the past; and in the energy and prosperity of their chief city there is no sign of deterioration. It is mere affectation-a pretence to conceal disquiet-to assert, with the Nationalist and Radical papers, that the movement is mere 'bluff,' that its supporters will melt away when the crisis comes, and that, a year or two hence, Sir Edward Carson will be the most ridiculous figure within the four seas. The recent 'campaign' was preceded, it is true, by some regrettable outbreaks of violence; while the campaign itself was not without some accompaniments-the military salutes, the wooden cannon, and so forth-which savoured of opera bouffe and detracted from the otherwise dignified character of the proceedings. But such incidents will not weaken, in the mind of the unprejudiced observer, the conviction that the movement is a serious one, led and supported by determined men, and likely, so far as it is possible to judge, to be carried out to the bitter end. Let us place on record, at the outset, the documents which embody the spirit of the movement and define its objects. These are (1) the Resolution unanimously adopted, on September 23, by nearly five hundred members and delegates of the Ulster Unionist Council; and (2) the solemn