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Aaron Wildavsky action administration agencies agenda alternatives American assessment behavior benefits budget Chapter Chicago Bears committee Congress consider cost-benefit analysis costs curve decision makers defense Delphi technique economic effect environmental estimate evaluation example executive experience federal Figure force forecasting garbage can model goals grand strategy groups Herman Kahn hospital idea implementation important income increase indifference curve individuals industry institutional interest issues legislative major marginal costs medicare ment military million Nicaragua nuclear objectives Office operations organization participants percent policy analysis policymakers political pollution population poverty President problem production programs proposed public policy question Reagan result social society solution Soviet Soviet Union specific staff strategic factors strategy theory tion trend U.S. Congress unemployment United welfare economics York