Art. 3.-THE PROSPECTS OF ANGLO-ITALIAN TRADE. AFTER the general upset caused by the war and the stoppage of commercial relations between hostile countries, much of the pre-existent trade will find its old channels blocked, and, when peace returns, it will have to look for development in new directions. Nowhere will this be more felt than in the interchange of commodities between Italy and Germany. For years past Germany has looked on Italy as a field to be exploited; and the commercial treaty forced on the latter country in 1904 gave a great stimulus to that trade, which came to be more and more directed in a way to favour the ambitions of German manufacturers. They sent over to Italy an ever-increasing amount of manufactured goods, taking raw material in exchange, especially fruit, vegetables and unmanufactured silk. The Italian manufacturers, especially those of Lombardy and Piedmont, who held that their interests had been sacrificed by the negociators of the 1904 treaty to those of the fruitgrowers of the south, were, so far back as 1912, preparing to make their wishes felt when the commercial treaties should come up for revision in 1917.

Under the new conditions that will arise Italy will no doubt find it easy enough to supply herself with such manufactured goods as she needs and can afford to pay for from England or elsewhere. The sale of the stuff that she used to send to Germany is a far more difficult matter, but in some way or another it must be provided for. The balance of trade would set too strongly against her should she not succeed in finding other purchasers to replace the German. Thus among the post-bellum problems connected with international customs relations, which Italy will have to adjust, not the least important is that of finding an outlet for her agricultural produce. It may be assumed that the Central Empires, which have of late years absorbed a very important amount of this, will be, at least in part, closed against it, either by hostile tariffs or national ill-will or because of the reduced purchasing power of their population.

The importance of this export is twofold. In the first place it is, as will be seen, of great absolute value. In the second place it has been the source of considerable

Vol. 231.-No. 458.

H

W

disagreement between the North and South. says the South, should we pay higher prices for spades, the saws, and the cotton goods which we use order that the northern manufacturer should grow on protective duties?' 'Let us be treated fairly,' rej the North, 'in the matter of protection against Ger dumping, and don't forget that we are, after all, y most important and your most accessible market. we are impoverished, you will, to look at the ma from a merely selfish standpoint, lose more than can gain by any changes in foreign tariffs on fruit vegetables.' As will be seen, the argument of the No is probably sound. The two parts of the Kingdom indissolubly bound together.

A few figures will suffice to throw a clear light the problem that has to be faced. Before the war It exported, in round figures, goods to the value 2,500,000,000 lire and imported 3,600,000,000, the ficiency of exports being fairly well balanced by 'hidden exports' in the shape of money spent in country in purchases by tourists, and of money s back by emigrants, especially from the enorm numbers-over 4,000,000-having more or less per nent homes in the two Americas. The money com in from this form of export was of course precaric In the cholera year, for instance, the income deri from tourists withered away, while that derived fr the remittances of emigrants is subject to politi events, as has been proved by the result of the war.

An analysis of these totals under their leading he gives the following results, in round figures :—

With regard to wheat, it is held by such authorities as Prof. Valenti and Prof. Alpe that, in view of the increasing population and the higher standard of living, even given improved methods of agriculture, it is unlikely that this import can be materially diminished in the near future. It is also almost certain that the duty on wheat will be kept up, and this for two reasons: firstly, it provides an important addition to the revenue which, though it fluctuates very widely according to the harvests of the several years-e.g. in 1907 brought in only 34 millions-produced an average of 112 millions in 1910-1913; and, secondly, it promotes the cultivation of wheat and helps the farmer to make a living.

As compared with other countries before the war, Italy exported goods to the value of only 69 per cent. of her imports, while Austria-Hungary exported 81 per cent., France 82 per cent., the United Kingdom 83 per cent., Germany 94 per cent., and Russia 130 per cent. The problem, how to bring up Italy in this respect to something like a level with her neighbours, is urgent. Either she must import less or export more, or both. From this point of view great stress is laid on the importance of the Fruit and Vegetable export trade. Having in view the possibility that, after the war, the markets of Central Europe, which have in the past absorbed very large quantities of it, will remain closed to Italian agricultural produce, it is important to discover new outlets, especially for the produce of Southern Italy, and to provide for its suitable transport. There is also another current of opinion, especially strong in the South, which maintains the view that Italy cannot accept alterations in the present tariff (i.e. that of the German treaty), nor adhere to international agreements against the Central Empires lest she should imperil the future of her agriculture, and more particularly injure the south of the Kingdom, whose prosperity is closely bound up with the exportations to Central Europe.

Both currents of opinion converge on one point-the importance of the fruit and vegetable trade, and the danger that, if this is not rapidly and sympathetically handled, in a business-like way, it may prove to be the rock of offence on which the hearty entrance of Italy into the inter-ally post-bellum trade agreements may be

wrecked. It is a tenable argument that the whole sch of Italian tariffs, which interest every branch of trade, will be found to hinge on the reasoned exp tions of Italians that the Northern nations, of w England is far the most important, will absorb a cons able part of that produce which has in the past gor Germany and Austria.

To understand the conditions of the trade a analysis of the articles exported is necessary. It ma premised that, while the total export of food-stuffs live stock has increased, the percentage of it goin the Central Empires has decreased. Thus, between and 1913, the total of Italian exports rose from millions to 762 millions, while those to the Cen Empires rose only from 118 millions to 184 millions; the percentage fell from 34.2 per cent. to 26 per cent.

In considering Anglo-Italian relations the expor live stock may be set aside. The distances are too g for it ever to be largely developed. The same may said of cereals, the export of which is a neglig quantity, though Italy does export a certain quan of rice (66,000 tons in 1913).

More important are fresh vegetables, including potat Of these Italy produces about 2,500,000 tons, and exp about one-tenth. Of these, in 1913, 160,000 tons (69 cent. of the total), valued at 26,000,000 lire, went the Central Empires, the most important items be cabbages, cauliflowers and tomatoes. Of preserved ve tables of all sorts-the most important being in the fo of tomato sauce-which on the average amount to ab 55,000,000 lire, Germany takes but little, the Uni Kingdom being the most important customer, tho the United States, which in 1913 imported 14,500,000 of tomato sauce, is a good second. In this as in ot departments of trade the raw material goes to Germa the finished article to England.

With regard to fruit, the most important export that of oranges and lemons; and at present it is on th more than any other, that the hopes and fears of South are based. Of these the Central Empires abs to the value of 36,000,000 lire out of a total export 85,000,000 lire. During the war, the British governme has bought a large part of the orange crop, and

averted a serious crisis in Sicily. This can, however, not be regarded as more than a temporary palliative, and leaves the post-bellum problem as it was. Of other fresh fruit, including chestnuts, the total average export from 1911 to 1913 was valued at 50,000,000 lire, of which more than half went to the Central Empires. Most of their imported peaches, apricots and cherries, to the amount of 15,000 tons, came from Italy. Of dried fruit, again, the same countries take to the value of 30,000,000 lire, or about half of the total produce.

The total export of fruit and vegetables, fresh and dried, is therefore worth about 165,000,000 lire; and in addition to this there is a respectable export of preserved fruit. Adding this to the 30,000,000 lire or so of vegetables, we get a total export to the Central Empires of about 200,000,000 lire, weighing 507,800 tons-say 1400 tons per day, or 7 trains of 20 ten-ton trucks each. These figures are important as showing the bulk of the traffic handled. The importance also of the trucks, brought across in the Channel Ferry, after they are unloaded in England, being at once available for taking over return freight is very great. This would facilitate international trade not less as a matter of convenience than by very materially reducing the incidence of freight on both exported and imported goods.

Of wine Italy exports no very large quantity; and this consists, for the most part, of coarse, heavy wines for blending. With the exception of Vermouth and Marsala, there are no established types of wines on sale in the world-market. Chianti,' which might have been developed into a useful trade mark, is a mere name covering any kind of rubbish 'good enough for the foreigner. Though some sound Chianti, Capri, Barolo, etc., are exported, they are peddled in small quantities by individual growers.

Consequently, Italian wine has at present a bad reputation in England, and deservedly so. For the most part inferior produce has been sent over and sold at necessarily high prices. It might be worth while trying the experiment of delivering it in London cheap. New wine drawn from the fermenting vat was, before the war, usually sold at from 20 to 30 lire the quintal 22 gallons). If this is kept till March and then fined or