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actually fallen, and that the country was faced by the evil of the chronic poverty of a large section of the white population. The South African problem remained. There was still no guarantee of the permanent domination either of a white race or a white civilisation.

That, under existing conditions, there is no such guarantee in the future is the considered conclusion of the Director of Census. What is also now becoming clear is that, with merely the continuance of present development, it must become more and more difficult for the white minority to rule the coloured majority. In present-day South Africa it is no light task for 1,500,000 whites to control the destiny of 5,500,000 non-whites. What they will have to face in the future is not only a still greater disparity of numbers, but a growing disposition on the part of the coloured masses to resent a white dictatorship. White rule in South Africa has to-day almost effaced the old tribal divisions and antagonisms which once weakened the native races in their conflict with Europeans. The natives are becoming one race, possessing a distinct race-consciousness. The Rev. Charles Bourquin, of the Swiss Mission, who has made a special study of the natives, recently declared that the abyss between the two races is growing more and more. The influence of the purely British rule

' wbich they feel did much for them, has been withdrawn, and the natives say the cow of Great Britain has now gone dry, and we must look to our own selves for salvation.' Missionaries, Natives Affairs Department officials, and police officers in rural districts know well that the attitude of the natives has changed a great deal in recent rears. Since the Great War much vague Bolshevism has been talked in the kraals. Among themselves the tribesmen are fond of boasting that the land is really theirs and that one day they will make another effort to possoss it. They resent the higher wages paid to whites, their own exclusion from many classes of skilled work, and what they regard as the harsh land and pass laws. Further, the 'white aristocracy,' which is coming face to face with a coloured proletariat increasing in numbers and restlessness, is itself revealing signs of growing weakness. Not only is it performing a diminishing share of the actual work of



the country, but both its desire and its capacity for doing that work are dwindling.

The farmers cry aloud for more labour. But they mean black labour. They do not want white workers. If they had them they would scarcely know what to do with them. Lord Selborne used to tell a tale of a Boer farmer who sat on his stoep lamenting because the weeds were suffocating his crops and he had no Kaffirs to pull them up. But it never struck the Boer farmer and his five or six stalwart sons to do the weeding themselves. Even the bywoners and the poor whites who formerly cultivated land on shares, or gave their labour under some similar local system, are being squeezed off the farm into the slums of the towns. There is no smallholder class growing up in South Africa comparable to that which has strengthened the white race in Australasia and Canada. The first demand of the settlers with capital who enter the Union in small numbers is for black labour. Agrioultural expansion in South Africa upon present lines can do nothing to check the numerical preponderance of the coloured population; rather does it tend to augment it. One finds, too, that even if the new-comer from abroad begins by personal labour on the soil, the next generation falls easily into the traditional South African dependence upon coloured workers. As a rule South African farming is pictured to the potential immigrant as a gentlemanly business in which the white man's part will lie in riding over his estate supervising the labour of black men.

The mining industry is large and valuable, but one finds in it a marked tendency to lower the ratio of white to coloured employees. The Rand strikes of 1906, 1913, and 1922 proved that the gold can be won without even the customary ratio of 1 white to 9 or 10 blacks. As the grade of ore becomes lower there will be a powerful excuse for reducing working costs by diminishing the proportion of white labour used. In the tin, coal, copper, iron, and other enterprises of the country the white man is merely an overseer.

Statistics relating to the manufacturing activities of the Union have only been prepared in recent years, and their accuracy is not above question. But whether one studies these returns, or the older figures relating to the


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Cape and Natal alone, there is revealed a steadily growing dependence upon coloured labour. Strong tradeunionism protects two or three special industries-such as the printing business—but in the majority of enterprises there is a distinct tendency for coloured labour to increase at the expense of white. A good many years ago, when Mr John X. Merriman was Premier of the Cape Colony, he objected publicly to a deputation of white workmen designating themselves the workers' of the colony. "You don't represent the real workers of the colony,' he said, 'who are very seldom heard at meetings of this kind. You represent the dominant caste in this country--the white people.' And he added that there was no work which could not in time be done by the black man as well as by the white man. The dominant caste, yes! But a white nation ? Even the laws of South Africa tend to divide the country into a white aristocracy and a coloured proletariat. Years ago the Transvaal Mining Industry Commission arrived at the conclusion that existing conditions there combine to render the native more attractive to an ployer than his personal qualities and powers as a labourer in competition with a white man would by themselves warrant. Of two labourers, one a white man and the other a native, of equal efficiency and prepared to work at the same cost to the employer, the law gives a premium to the employer to employ the native.'

A mass of statistical evidence could be adduced to show that the whole of producing South Africa is steadily offering less work for white people and more work for coloured people. That this is so is admitted by every official in the Union who has investigated the tendencies of recent years.

The boom' period concealed, but did not alter, the age-long trend of economic life in the country, which is distinctly pro-colour-employing and not pro-white-employing. At this very moment the outstanding features of South African life are:

(1) White emigration exceeding white immigration in volume.

(2) The constant growth of the poor white class.

(3) A continuous decline in the proportion of whites in the population.

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These facts should cause no surprise. The majority of South African employers prefer coloured labour to white labour. They regard a cheap black labour force as the country's greatest asset. Their only regret is that it is not larger and cheaper. They have tried in the past to make it both by importing Indians and Chinese, and they are still importing Mozambique natives. The labour of the coloured man has been made, and remains, the very basis of all agricultural and industrial activity. South Africa has done, and can do, without white labour; it does not believe it could exist without coloured labour.

And as the country has sown so it has reaped. The results which are sometimes deplored to-day are precisely those which one would expect to flow from such conditions, and precisely what similar conditions have always produced elsewhere in the world. They are not in themselves extraordinary. What is extraordinary is that a white community which has based all its activities upon such a system should imagine that it could evolve from it a white nation, or maintain unimpaired a white civilisation.

And, finally, there is one further result now coming to light which one might also have expected to flow from such conditions. A large section of the white population is deteriorating, and its capacity to resist the rising flood of coloured efficiency is weakening. In the mass the poor whites are incompetent, helpless, and improvident, and their children include an alarming percentage of mental defectives. Dr Dunstan, the Commissioner for Mental Disorders in the Union, recently told the Education Commission that the number of retarded boys and girls in the Transvaal was more than three times the proportion found similarly retarded in the American schools.' He added: I do not hesitate

' to say that the problem is so important that unless in some way or other we can solve it, the white population must in the end sink as the native population rises, and there can only be one end-a black and yellow nation.'

Such, then, ape the main facts. And in the face of those facts there is no parallel in history which suggests that if present conditions and tendencies continue, the white race in South Africa can maintain either its domination or its civilisation. Already a slow process of white attrition has set in. Decay must quicken as the years pass. The unskilled work of all Southern Africa is in the hands of the coloured races, Practically the whole of the semi-skilled work has fallen to them. More and more of the skilled work is becoming their heritage as well. The small upper class among the whites may continue to be the landlords, the professional men, and the large merchants. But the lower class is living more and more down to a coloured standard, and one section of it is already definitely mixing with the coloured race. Poverty breaks down the oldest social barriers.

A small white aristocracy cannot indefinitely control, and deny political rights to, a coloured proletariat rapidly attaining an overwhelming numerical superiority. Had South Africa remained a British Colony having behind it the armed strength of a powerful white nation, the position would have been less menacing. But the small white minority claims self-government, nationhood, and virtual independence. Place the white minorities in Jamaica or India upon such a basis, and how long would their domination survive?

If present conditions continue there are only two alternatives before South Africa. One is for the white minority to insist upon retaining its place as the ruling aristocracy regardless of everything, until the overwhelming weight of numbers of the developing and dissatisfied coloured majority produces an upheaval. The other is for the white minority to give the coloured majority some share in the Government, in which case the price of the coloured vote would be further and further concessions until at last the ruling power passed into its hands and South Africa became a coloured country both in name and reality.

With a continuance of present conditions the former fate is the more likely, because White South Africa will never willingly admit the equality of colour. But it is a form of domination which must inevitably be confronted by ever increasing difficulties as both the numerical strength and the social and political restlessness of the coloured majority grows. World development everywhere denies the conclusion that in South Africa alone a white aristocracy of dwindling strength and

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