it will relieve that Parliament of many responsibilities which, at present, it is only very inadequately fulfilling, and so lighten the strain upon the constitutional mechanism at home. More than that, by eliminating Imperial issues from our domestic controversies, it will help to get rid of the entirely false antithesis between Imperial and social questions which underlies so much of our party controversies at the present day. But, however important-and no question can really compare with it in importance-the solution of the Imperial problem does not bear directly upon the immediate issue of constitutional reform in this country. That issue has to be decided here and on its merits, and any attempt to confuse the two, such, for instance, as is implied in the well-meant suggestion to convert the House of Lords into an Imperial Senate by the inclusion of colonial representatives, can only end in futility. To succeed we must recognise clearly that there are two great tasks we must take in hand. The one-the rebuilding of our domestic constitution to suit our domestic needs-is a task for this nation alone. The other-the creation of a new and yet more splendid fabric of an Imperial constitution to suit the needs of a world-wide Empirecan only be carried out by a common Imperial effort.

Art. 14.-BRITISH POLICY IN THE NEAR EAST. To the future historian the Balkan War with its necessary corollaries will stand out as one of the memorable features in the panorama of European evolution. It marks the watershed of two epochs, the cleavage line between the old international order and a new one, the nature of which is as yet undefined. One of its ultimate effects will be the collapse of the artificial in the groundwork of international politics and the substitution of homogeneous peoples for mixed States in the balance of nations. In the light of such data as are at present available, one may sum up the more striking cosmopolitan effects of the campaign just ended by saying that it has transferred the Oriental question from South-Eastern Europe to Asia Minor; has pitted the Slav against the Teuton, not only there but all over Eastern Europe; and has by overlapping interests detracted enormously from the value of hard and fast alliances. And now that hostilities are at last terminated, the Powers of Europe may be congratulated upon a provisional settlement and a temporary lull, and condoled with on the increased burdens of blood and money which they are doomed to bear until the next storm bursts.

The Near Eastern problem having altered its aspect, the parts ascribed to the various Powers occupied in working it out to an issue must undergo a corresponding change. The spectacle with which Europe will be confronted during the present and the coming generations is a struggle, diplomatic and, it may be, military, between Slav and Teuton for the lion's share of territory in Asia Minor and in Eastern Europe-a struggle which may easily develop into what Germans term a 'might-contest.' At this early stage it may be difficult for the untrained eye of the average observer to discern the connecting link which unites the expulsion of the Turks from Europe with the sharpening of the antagonism between the Slav and Teutonic peoples. He will be more deeply struck by the seemingly felicitous readjustment of the equipoise of forces which was upset by the downfall of the Osmanli. The creation of a new independent State which secular traditions as well as material interests render

hostile to the Slavs, the paralysing effect of the jealousies of the victors among themselves, and the elaborate military precautions adopted by Austria-Hungary and her powerful ally, have seemingly restored the statu quo-at any rate in so far as its conservative influence on political Europe is concerned.

But onlookers who perceive only this surface smoothness and discern nothing beneath, display a false conception of the significance of recent events. They confound the transient with the durable. The principle of balance in South-Eastern Europe may indeed be upheld for a little while longer owing to the elements of discord within the triumphant Coalition, and to the consequent gravitation of some of its members towards the military Powers of Central Europe. But to the trained political ear the ground beneath this artificial structure rings hollow. True, the Coalition is foredoomed to fall to pieces, and has already become dissolved in fact if not in form. Bereft of their cement—a common, rich and conquerable foe-the victorious partners are yielding to centrifugal influences. Greece feels drawn towards Turkey and repelled by Bulgaria. The Serbs are sundered from the Bulgars by opposition of interests which the future will certainly intensify. Roumania, which for centuries helped and befriended Bulgaria, is now at daggers drawn with her neighbour, owing much less to an antagonism of aims than to Bulgarian diplomatic methods. Even if the two nations were to join hands and persist in the Austrophil policy inaugurated by King Carol, this decision would, it is thought, retard but not avert the final consummation; for the three and a half millions of Roumanians in the Dual Monarchy wield & force of attraction which may in the long run affect their brethren in the Kingdom. Already public feeling on the subject in Bucharest, Jassy, Braila and other parts of Roumania is perceptibly veering round towards Russia and the Slavs, whose day of jubilee has dawned at last. If Vienna counts upon Roumania and Bulgaria to keep the Serbs in bounds, Russia also relies upon them both to further the cause of the Slavs, whose peaceful penetration of the East is now become manifest. And one of these two Empires is doomed to disappointment.

The victories of the Allies over the Turks electrified

the Slav peoples, sharpening their consciousness of racial strength and whetting their appetite for political power. At the news of the fall of Adrianople the deputies of the Russian Duma rejoiced ecstatically. Even Dr Daneff, though no conquering hero, was made the recipient of honours such as were never bestowed upon Moltke or Wellington, and was carried triumphantly about the Tavrida Palace in the arms of Russia's chosen law-givers. On that memorable occasion Bulgaria's representative, M. Bobcheff, addressing an enthusiastic Russian crowd, is alleged to have said: 'It is the victory of Russia, whose troops occupied Adrianople in 1829. It is the victory of Slavdom in its entirety. Long live great Russia!'

That is the keynote of the new situation-the coming of the Slav. Doubtless Panslavism in Russia has just suffered a temporary reverse at the hands of the Imperial Government led by MM. Kokofftseff and Sazonoff, who, being statesmen, are for cutting the national coat according to its cloth. After a sharp struggle national interests have prevailed over racial dreams. But the battle was hard fought and the field is still contested. In the near future the defeated will receive adequate help from without. The impending duel with Germany in Asia Minor may drive official Russia into the path into which she so lately refused to be drawn. Panslavism has hitherto been but a garish flame, flickering at banquets in the restaurants of St Petersburg; but since the victory at Kirklisse, the fall of Adrianople, and the transformation of the Oriental question, it promises to become a torch to illumine the way of the Government of the Tsar. That was certainly Germany's reading of the omens. And the practical conclusions she drew from them are writ large in the new military law, the non-recurrent tax of a milliard marks, and the impressive circumstances under which these measures have been adopted.

These are some of the considerations which make short work of the contention of those optimists who hold that the course of Near Eastern affairs must now run smooth, because forsooth there is no longer any room in the Balkans for friction between Austria-Hungary and Russia, seeing that neither of these States lays claim to territory there. On the contrary, they will both continue to influence the politics of the Balkans by proxy; the

one through Albania, the other through Servia. And the spirit that will animate the two Empires in their mutual relations is abundantly disclosed by their unstable negotiations with regard to the demobilisation of their armies and the delimitation of Albania. During the lull now beginning the States of the League will settle down and recuperate their spent forces, postponing the realisation of further schemes of aggrandisement. That there are such schemes is certain. The designs of Bulgaria, which avowedly aims at the political primacy of the Balkans and is well-equipped for that position, are no secret. The publicist, who should announce that before the present century has run a quarter of its course she will have wrested from Servia the district of Pirot, together with certain other and newer acquisitions of her Slav neighbour and ally, and have made an effort to detach Salonica from Greece, could not fairly be accused of reckless vaticination. For Bulgaria means to grow. She deems herself the Piedmont of the Balkans. Unhappily she lacks a Cavour. Dr Daneff's scrupulous patriotism shrank from surrendering a rood of his native soil to Roumania, while his diplomacy clothed the refusal in a form that estranged the sympathies of the nation with which his own was to have fused its forces and recomposed the Balkan world. Still the judgment of the arbitrators in St Petersburg may possibly reconcile the two nations. The surrender of Silistria looks like a step in this direction. That the Russian Government would pay handsomely for the privilege of pulling the strings both at Sofia and Belgrade is self-evident.

Turning to the calculable element in the future we discern foretokens of a Turco-Bulgarian entente which would appear to be now the uppermost scheme in the minds of constructive Bulgarian politicians. The motive which they set before their enemies of yesterday is that between Turkey and Bulgaria there is no longer any ground for hostility, whereas there are cogent reasons for co-operation. Bulgaria harbours no further designs on the integrity of the Ottoman realm. She scouts the notion that Constantinople is her next national goal 'If it were,' adds her naïve spokesman, she would find, not only Turkey, but also Russia blocking her way. And we cannot afford to disregard the wishes of our elder